Fake encounters of FM read and comment

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PC’s fake encounter with facts — Kishore Trivedi

Why has PC not answered Dr. Subramanian Swamy? Why is PC asking Finance Ministry to file defamation case against Dinamani.

http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/09/soniag-upa-on-road-to-economy-crash.html

SoniaG UPA, on the road to economy crash. Remove Rajan, RBI Governor — Dr. Subramanian Swamy

http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/09/indianeconomy-in-crisis-nationalize.html

Indian economy in crisis. Nationalize bank accounts of Indian citizens in 70 countries. Confiscate P-Notes. — Dr. Subramanian Swamy

http://bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2013/09/pc-aggrieved-centre-files-defamation.html

PC aggrieved. Centre files defamation case against Dinamani.

PC’s fake encounter with facts
Kishore Trivedi on September 23, 2013

Arrogance blended with self-denial is a deadly cocktail and who better than our Finance Minister can demonstrate the after effects better! The fact that the Finance Minister and the UPA are living in a dream world was evident when he released a statement before going to the National Integration Council meeting, which questioned Narendra Modi’s claims of the economic growth under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s NDA and the economic decline under the present UPA.

Chidambaram asked Modi not to stage ‘fake encounters’ with facts when the truth is that the Finance Minister is fooling the entire nation by giving half-baked facts and incomplete analysis. I ask the Finance Minister five questions that will puncture his attempt to mislead the people of India.

Question 1

Can Chidambaram deny that when UPA took charge (he was Finance Minister even back then), the growth rate of India was 8.6 per cent?

This was the result of a commendable effort of the Vajpayee Government considering the economic mess they inherited in 1998 and the severe economic sanctions by the world community in the aftermath of Pokhran. Placing India’s self respect first and backing it up by a grand vision, the Vajpayee Government left the economy at its peak with the growth rate of 8.6 per cent in 2004.

Question 2

Will Chidambaram also deny that the growth rate for 2012-2013, a year when he was Finance Minister, was barely five per cent?

It is alright to share year by year growth rate figures of the NDA rule Mr Finance Minister but did you bother to check the growth rate of the nation in the last year itself, which stood at a mere 4.98 per cent? How did Chidambaram forget this inconvenient but obvious truth right under his watch?

Question 3

Is Chidambaram aware of the Q4 figure for 2012-2013 and Q1 figure for 2013-2014?

It may be worthwhile to remind our Harvard educated Finance Minister that last quarter growth for 2012-2013 stood at 4.8 per cent and the figure dropped even lower during the first quarter of this year at 4.4 per cent. In fact, Narendra Modi was very kind not to mention the quarterly figures for this year this year, preferring to stick to the Q4 figures of last year, which are marginally better.

Question 4

Is Chidambaram aware of what economic think tanks and independent external agencies are saying about our economy?

It is not only the common man and woman or Narendra Modi that is rightly worried about the economy. Various national and international agencies of repute have expressed concern about the economic gloom prevalent across the nation? If he is not, I would love to enlighten the anti-encounter specialist Chidambaram.

Standard & Poor’s has said that the chances of India’s ratings downgrade look much higher compared to other emerging market economies. Further downgrade would even push it to ‘junk’ status. After the quarterly GDP growth at dismal 4.4 per cent, HSBC forecasted GDP growth for FY14 at just four per cent, a low not recorded since the 1990s. Bank of America went to the extent of saying that there is no hope the government can change things the way they are currently. According to the Reuters report, almost all global banks are skeptical about India’s growth prospects. Is this also the NDA’s doing?

Question 5

Does Chidambaram know where the NDA and UPA stand on job creation?

One of the factors that determine the performance of the Government is the opportunity it created for the people.

NSSO statistics (I presume they were not fudged by the NDA, Chidambaram) clearly suggest that the number of jobs created from 1999-2004 was 60.1 million whereas the figure between 2004-2011 is a poor 14.6 million (the figure for UPA 1, which PC calls the golden period growth is 2.7 million). These figures only speak for themselves!

Thus, instead of setting his own house in order the Finance Minister has done everything else under the sun. Few remember that the economic ruin of India began in 2008 thanks to mindless spending.

When the NDA came to power the growth rate was 4.8 per cent. Today we are yet again close to that figure in 2013 after a golden period starting from 1999, whose efforts were seen in the growth rate during 2003 and 2004.

Do we want to go back to 1997? And by the way, do you know who the Finance Minister that time was…

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/09/23/pcs-fake-encounter-with-facts-136593.html

—
S. Kalyanaraman

https://sites.google.com/site/kalyan97/national-water-grid

https://sites.google.com/site/indianoceancommunity1/

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We are not Responsible

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We are not responsible!
EQUITYMASTER HOMEPAGE 24th Aug 2013
The UPA Government has earned itself the dubious distinction of involvement in several large corruption scandals. Each time various Government functionaries absolve themselves of all responsibility. Perhaps it should admit being anirresponsible Government, which it is.
The latest is the scam at the National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL). When a group of investors, with an aggregateRs 5,500 crores stuck in the exchange, complained to Arvind Mayaram in the Ministry of Finance, the expected answer was that his Ministry was not responsible. It was the Ministry of Consumer Affairs that was, under whose jurisdiction the regulator, Forward Markets Commission (FMC) was supposed to be responsible for regulating the exchange. But FMC Chairman claims he is not responsible, as he was appointed regulator but without power! The question, raised by these columns earlier, and unanswered is, who permitted the NSEL to start operations, without first authorising a regulator to regulate its operations?
Imagine the chaos that would ensue if each regulator took a similar stance. What if the RBI shirked responsibility of a banking fraud and claimed it was not responsible? What if SEBI maintained that it was powerless against a company who, e.g. had raised money through an IPO and misused it? Is it any wonder, then, that individuals repose their faith in gold and not in paper assets? If the Government is genuine, it has to protect investors, else it will incur their wrath prior to a general election.
Echoing the sentiment, the NSEL says it is not responsible. The top management has been sacked, which is a gesture by the promoters of the Exchange to shirk responsibility for the actions of a management they appointed.
Let’s look at other examples of shirking of responsibility.
The Finance Minister says that it is not responsible for the state of the economy, which is in dire straits. It is not responsible for the high fiscal deficit or for the unsustainably high current account deficit. For the latter, it is the citizen, with his penchant for gold, explained above, who is responsible! For the poor GDP growth it is the companies who are responsible, for going slow on investment, and not the Government, which has blocked several permissions required for the investment. The National Highways Authority of India has had to cancel 6 road projects because of not being able to get land acquisition clearance. But, of course, the Government is never responsible.
Consider the depreciating rupee. In 1947, when India became independent, the Rupee was equal to the US $. It is now Rs 65/$. So in 66 years, the currency has depreciated 65 times. The value of the currency is related to productivity of the country. This means that India has, since independence, sharply declined in productivity. The Congress partyhas been in power for over 75% of the time during these 65 years. But, of course, it is not responsible!
The falling rupee will, obviously, lead to inflation. Crude oil, as well as gas, translated to INR, would be more expensive. This would mean that all petro products, petrol, diesel, LPG, kerosene, would cost more, and so will power from gas based plants. So the subsidies on the petro products and power will shoot up, and, in a bid to contain them, the Government will raise prices, with the velvet glove admonition to ‘kindly bear with us‘. Corporate profits will be hit by the hike in costs, combined with the higher interest rates which are the consequence of a badly managed economy. Of course, the Government is not responsible.
This is a criminal misallocation of resources. The national productivity rises when children are given a proper education and training and when laws and regulation are conducive to economic acitivity and growth. Not when subsidies are given for people to drive cars in. Annual sale of cars is under 4 m., or 0.08% of our population. The Government subsidises them instead of spending money on better education.
Only a few countries are teaching their children how to think. These include Finland, Poland, Japan, South Korea and Canada, who consistently score high on the PISA test. India scores poorly. Children become smart, and, later, productive, when they are challenged to think for themselves. In India the Government has cleared the way for all to be promoted. This does not challenge them to think. They are not as productive as they can be. Without productivity, the nation slips.The currency weakens. Other countries race ahead. But the Government is not responsible.
So tyrannical are the rules and laws in India, and so subjective, that we destroy our own industries and encourage the brightest to go abroad.
The sugar industry, one of the most controlled industries, is being killed. Prices for sugar cane are fixed by both the Centre and the States, both competing with each other to increase prices, never mind the viability of the sugar factories. They set high prices to get farmer votes; the cost is borne by the mills. The mills are going bankrupt. Bad politics drives away good economics. But the Governments are not responsible.
Another example is that of iron ore exports. These were banned after cases of illegal iron ore mining (corruption, again, in various states like Karnataka and AP) were discovered. It is easy to ban, or destroy. It is not easy to rebuild. The drop in iron ore exports is a contributory factor to the Current Account Deficit. It has led to a loss of jobs. And to a fall in production of steel. Is anybody reviewing the export ban? Or is nobody responsible?
Well, companies like Tata Steel have, in partnership with a Canadian company, set up an iron ore project in Canada, and has already got permission. (South Korean Posco, after an 8 year wait in Odisha, has not). If a large FDI proposal such as Posco comes in it eases pressure on the rupee. But there is no thinking in Government. As this article in the Economist points out, economic activity is being shifted out of India.
America is anticipating an economic boom, predicated largely on a boom in output of shale gas, using a technology called hydraulic fracking. Now it is not the availability of technology that is preventing the search for shale gas in India. Technologies can be bought, or obtained, or developed. Rather, it is ownership rights. In the US, the land owner has the right to everything on, or under, his land. In India it is the Government. As a result, the prospectors for oil and gas, can deal with land owners and sign contracts for exploiting the gas below their lands. And finds a lot of it, lowering gas prices and incentivising producers of energy dependent steel, fertilisers, metals, etc, to relocate to the US and create jobs and growth.
In India, the Government claims right to any resource under the ground of property belonging to any individual. It auctions the right to hunt for oil/gas, creates a huge mess in the pricing of it. Production drops and prices rise. The fall in production leads to higher imports, a higher current account deficit and a falling currency. So, what is important to the Government? Is it the ownership of resources under individual land or is it the possibility of larger oil/gas finds and an easing of economic problems? A responsible Government would know the right answer. There is something strange happening in the gold market, as per this blog. Export of gold from London (where it is not mined, but, rather, held as a backing for gold ETFs) has zoomed, to Switzerland. In 2012 exports were a mere 92 tonnes. In the first half of 2013 it is 797 tonnes. It appears that this gold is being melted to smaller sizes for export to Asia. Presumably most of it is smuggled into India, as import duties have been myopically hiked. There is another interesting article titled ‘Hawala Logic’ by Anand Ranganathan, which points to the sharp fall in the rupee versus the US $ in the months preceeding a general election, presumable to fetch more rupees when the $s stashed abroad are brought back. The only exception was when the BJP was in power in 2004 and the rupee appreciated.
It is possible that the Government may announce another amnesty scheme, in which those with funds stashed in Swiss banks and other offshore centres (which the Supreme Court is insisting on taking action agains) can be brought back with a smallish penalty. The fall in the rupee more than pays for the penalty. Then the Government will take credit for the strengthening of the rupee. The stockmarket, where the money will be invested after the recent fall, could bounce back, and everyone will sing happy days are here again. This is just a hypothesis.
Last week the BSE-Sensex lost 79 points to close at 18,519, and the NSE-Nifty dropped 36 to end at 5,471.
International factors are ominous. As per this blog ‘What Happened in 1987’ the current rally since 2012 in US markets isdriven entirely by valuations, and not by earnings. The US Fed is likely to taper off its bond buying programme from September, and is to have a new boss who may be more hawkish. On the flip side, should PC come out with a disclosure scheme that would lead to funds stashed abroad coming back, it could lead to a rally. If not for that, the economy, the currency and the stockmarket would continue to slide. Of course, the Government is not responsible.
Comments on this edition of Straight From The Hip: Post a comment! | Read comments
J Mulraj is a stockmarket columnist and observer of long standing. His weekly column on stockmarkets has run for over 25 years. An MBA from IIM Calcutta, he has been a member of the BSE. He is now India Representative for Institutional Investor. A keen observer of events and trends, he writes in a lucid yet readable style and takes up issues on behalf of the individual investor. Nothing pleases him more than a reader who confesses having no interest in stockmarkets yet being a reader of his columns. His other interests include reading, both fiction and non fiction, bridge, snooker and chess.

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Why has PC not answered Dr. Subramanian Swamy? Why is PC asking Finance Ministry to file defamation case against Dinamani.

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